Bangladesh faces the risk of a major infrastructural crisis due to indecision regarding new submarine cable connections amidst rapidly growing demand for international bandwidth. Industry stakeholders warn that if new capacity is not added in time, the country's digital economy will face major barriers in the coming decade due to bandwidth shortages.
These remarks were shared on Monday (August 31) at a workshop titled "Protection of Digital Sovereignty and Necessity of New Submarine Cable to Meet Future Bandwidth Demand," held at a resort near Dhaka. The workshop was organized by the Telecom and Technology Reporters Network Bangladesh (TRNB). Masuduzzaman Robin, president of the organization, presided over the event, while general secretary Faruque Hossain delivered remarks.
During the workshop, Mashiur Rahman, Chief Executive Officer of Cdnet Communications Limited, and Mahmud Shahed, Project Lead of Metacore Subcom Limited, delivered two presentations highlighting the history of submarine cables, the necessity of additional submarine cables in Bangladesh, investment, and the protection of digital sovereignty. Ahmed Junaid, Managing Director of Metacore Subcom Limited, and Mohammad Aminul Hakim, Chief Executive Officer, were present at the event.
At the event, Mohammad Aminul Hakim, Chief Executive Officer of Metacore Subcom Limited, stated that connecting the country to private submarine cables will safeguard national digital sovereignty. He added that internet prices will decrease by 50 percent, the quality of service will increase by 25 to 30 percent, and latency will decrease.
He further stated that the arrival of new submarine cables will increase internet usage in the country by 20 to 30 percent. He also noted that their main competitor is not submarine cable companies, but rather ITC (International Terrestrial Cable).
It was informed at the workshop that international bandwidth usage in the country has increased at an unprecedented rate over the past decade. Usage stood at just 50 Gbps in 2013, rising to 0.76 terabits in 2018, 1.78 terabits in 2020, 4.2 terabits in 2022, 6.86 terabits in 2024, and reaching approximately 13.5 terabits in 2026. In other words, usage has increased by about 260 times over 13 years.
The country's current demand for international bandwidth is approximately 13.5 terabits. According to forecasts, demand could reach 19.1 terabits in 2027, approximately 27 terabits in 2028, 54 terabits in 2030, 305 terabits in 2035, and 432 terabits in 2036. This demand may increase further due to video streaming, cloud services, data centers, AI, online education, digital payments, and industrial digitalization.
On the other hand, Bangladesh's primary reliance for international connectivity currently rests on two government submarine cables—SEA-ME-WE-4 and SEA-ME-WE-5. Their capacities are 4.6 and 2.5 terabits respectively. The remaining bandwidth is imported via ITC.
The risk is further compounded by heavy reliance on only two cables. While India is connected to 19 international submarine cables, Malaysia to 23, Thailand to 12, and the Philippines to 19, Bangladesh has only two. A fault or maintenance issue in any single cable can create immense pressure on national internet services.
Stakeholders believe that even though the government's third submarine cable, SEA-ME-WE-6, has been launched, it will not be sufficient in the long term. This is because the operational lifespan of SEA-ME-WE-4 is scheduled to end in 2030. According to forecasts, the bandwidth deficit could reach nearly 20 terabits by 2028.
In this situation, industry insiders view the approval of private-sector investment in new submarine cables as a crucial solution. Once the proposed cables are operational, they will add approximately 51 terabits of extra capacity, bringing total capacity to about 67 terabits. This will increase market competition, reduce dependence on bandwidth imports from India, and create opportunities to significantly lower wholesale bandwidth prices. Stakeholders claim internet prices could drop by up to 50 percent.
According to experts, the issue is not just about today's bandwidth crisis, but rather the digital capability of Bangladesh in 2030 and 2035. Planning, financing, constructing, and launching a submarine cable takes several years. Consequently, taking initiatives only after a crisis becomes visible may leave insufficient time for solutions. They fear that if indecision persists, it could lead to a repetition of the strategic mistake of losing the opportunity for SEA-ME-WE-3.
