Contradictions have emerged in the overall economic picture of the country during the first six months since the BNP government assumed office. Out of the 31 major economic indicators, progress has been achieved in 12 sectors, including remittance and foreign exchange reserves, but the remaining 19 important indicators—such as inflation and per capita debt—have deteriorated. Since January, a total of 95 industrial factories have permanently shut down across three major industrial zones, resulting in 61,881 workers losing their jobs.
These statistics and analyses were presented yesterday, Monday, by Dr. Debapriya Bhattacharya, Distinguished Fellow at the private research organization Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), during a media dialogue titled 'Six Months of the Government: An Economic Review.' CPD Distinguished Fellow Prof. Dr. Mustafizur Rahman and Additional Research Director Towfiqul Islam Khan were also present at the event, which was held at the CPD office in Dhanmondi.
Evaluating the past six months, Dr. Debapriya Bhattacharya stated that the public had two main expectations from the new government: that the economy would turn around and that good governance would be established. However, the overall review of the past six months shows no encouraging progress in either of these areas; instead, a sense of unease has been created regarding both expectations. The current government inherited a fragile economy from the previous government, facing massive challenges such as a cash crisis, a pathetic state in the banking sector, non-performing loans, capital flight, and revenue deficits. However, the expected momentum in turning the economy around by overcoming these challenges has not been seen. The main goals were to stop corruption, extortion, land grabbing, syndicates, and mob culture, but the reality has been different. Despite promises of merit-based appointments, politically connected individuals have been appointed to high posts, which is unacceptable. Even after the government declared a 'zero tolerance' policy, mob violence has continued in the country. Incidents of attacks on women, children, and minority communities are taking place, against which no visible effective resistance has been seen. The laws enacted to prevent enforced disappearances and protect human rights contain various flaws and incompleteness. Specifically, a conflict of interest has arisen because investigations are being conducted by those who violate the law.
However, the government has some successes. Dr. Debapriya Bhattacharya mentioned that when this government came to power, it inherited certain structural disadvantages, and the global situation was not positive either, as wars began. The problem is that the government did not prepare a consolidated document regarding the situation at the time it took office. Because of this, it is now difficult to evaluate various steps and economic progress. He said the government repeatedly claims it took charge under a bad situation, but no consolidated, fact-based document was prepared regarding what exact situation it inherited. As a result, it is now difficult to reconcile statistics with the government's various statements.
Dr. Debapriya Bhattacharya views the decline in private sector credit growth as a major concern for the economy. Presenting data from CPD's review, he stated that private sector credit growth dropped from 6 percent to 4.5 percent between February and June. Over the same period, the growth of letters of credit (LCs) for capital machinery shifted from positive to negative, and net foreign direct investment decreased. Describing the situation in the manufacturing sector as 'alarming,' he noted that industrial growth has slipped into negative territory, with no clear indication of a rapid recovery in private investment across these indicators. Dr. Debapriya noted that while some indicators like rising reserves or capital machinery imports appear positive, the underlying causes must also be considered. Is our foreign exchange reserve growth a sign of health or a sign of anemia? Explaining this, he stated that imports are declining due to a lack of investment, which in turn is increasing the reserves.
According to CPD statistics, from January to August of this year, 95 factories permanently closed across three industrial areas: Gazipur, Savar-Ashulia, and Narayanganj-Narsingdi, causing 61,881 people to lose employment. For the current 2026-27 fiscal year, the government's total revenue target is Tk 6.95 trillion, which will require about 42 percent revenue growth to achieve. Considering this, CPD regards the revenue collection situation as 'alarming.'
Dr. Debapriya Bhattacharya also commented on the government's structure, describing it as a 'two-and-a-half-storied government' consisting of ministers, state ministers, prime ministerial advisors, and special assistants of various ranks. He noted that at present, the Prime Minister is more popular than the government itself. The government's approval rating is not bad either, staying above 50, but the Prime Minister is personally popular. He views it as a major challenge whether the Prime Minister can use personal popularity and political courage to guide his party members on the right path and keep the bureaucracy in place. Assessing the six-month performance of the government, he remarked, 'I want to give it an 'A', but it pulls toward a 'B'.'
In response to a question, Dr. Debapriya stated that the government lacks the political courage to formulate a new pay scale for government employees. He believes that stalling the issue will not reduce problems; rather, the longer the delay, the more complex the situation will become. Dr. Debapriya Bhattacharya said that even after six months, decisions regarding salaries and allowances cannot be made, and asked why. There is a major issue of financial capacity. The interim government had submitted a report on the pay structure, which included a recommendation to implement the pay scale in phases, and everyone had accepted it. It would have been very good if, instead of such a long delay, a 20 to 25 percent dearness allowance had been given at the very beginning while asking for time. The point to which the matter has now been brought is not good. Stalling the issue will not solve the problem, and Dr. Debapriya Bhattacharya believes that the longer the delay, the more complicated the situation will get.
